Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A5 0xa53c…7ba0 tech 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care tech specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized +$18 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip

Net edge-71%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$428per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1,250now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-70.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-67.5%	-70.6%	0%	0%	-70.6%
≤30d	1	-67.5%	-70.6%	0%	0%	-70.6%
≤90d	1	-67.5%	-70.6%	0%	0%	-70.6%
all	1	-67.5%	-70.6%	0%	0%	-70.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-70.6%	0%	-70.6%
10%	-73.4%	0%	-73.4%
15%	-76.0%	0%	-76.0%
20%	-78.3%	0%	-78.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -68% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -68% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$3 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$1,250

Realized+$18

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage3d

Avg bet$428

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	Yes	99¢	97¢	$1,251	$1,226	−$25 (-2%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	No	99¢	98¢	$24	$24	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	Jun 23	$5	−$3	-68%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	BUY Yes	99¢	$900	1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$24	1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	BUY Yes	99¢	$337	1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	BUY Yes	99¢	$12	1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	BUY Yes	99¢	$2	1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	SELL Yes	2¢	$0	3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	8¢	$2	3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	3d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	BUY Yes	17¢	$3	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,249.83 · official $1,249.19 (match) · 9 history records