Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:55:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A5 0xa53d…4952 politics 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-7%) realized −$17 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%60W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% +$6
other 16% −$31
world 10% −$7
crypto 4% −$24
economics 1% +$3
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.1% -4.0% 62% 50% -6.9%
≤30d 10 +15.2% +4.2% 70% 60% -2.6%
≤90d 28 -32.3% -38.7% 43% 36% -13.6%
all 102 -11.8% -20.2% 59% 46% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 46% -13.2%
10% -27.9% 30% -21.5%
15% -34.8% 21% -29.1%
20% -41.2% 14% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses60 / 42
Open positions35
Markets (closed)102 / 137
History coverage155d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will the Republican Party win the NY-11 House seat? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat? Yes 81¢ 76¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-34 House seat? Yes 79¢ 69¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 48¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 55¢ 39¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01? Yes 45¢ 60¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? Yes 48¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 49¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+23%)
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 21¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? No 81¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-52%)
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? Yes 63¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-85%)
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 28 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Jun 28 $15 −$2 -13%
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? Jun 28 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? Jun 28 $10 +$2 +20%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Jun 28 $15 −$4 -24%
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? Jun 28 $40 +$10 +24%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 28 $30 −$6 -21%
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +35%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? May 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 May 06 $8 +$4 +54%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $7 −$4 -60%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 15 $15 +$9 +61%
Will Sweden join the Board of Peace? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the U.K. join the Board of Peace? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the RSF capture El Obeid by March 31? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Another US bank failure by March 31? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by March 31? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Grok memecoin wallet hits $1M before April? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Josée Massi be the next mayor of Toulon? Mar 27 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $15 +$6 +38%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 3 of the 20 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 1PM ET Mar 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Feb 28? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Moonbirds FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by February 28, 2026? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 18 $5 −$1 -16%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 42¢ $22 1h
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $13 1h
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? SELL Yes 77¢ $12 1h
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat? SELL Yes 73¢ $12 1h
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 1h
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $24 1h
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 7d
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamen BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $5 7d
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 7d
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7d
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 40d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 42d
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 42d
Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 49d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 49d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C BUY Yes 67¢ $10 49d
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $21 49d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 53d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY Yes 61¢ $10 73d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL Yes 88¢ $6 73d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 73d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 62¢ $10 73d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 73d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 74d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 92d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.74 · official $147.76 (match) · 399 history records