Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A5 0xa53e…f9f6 crypto 1150 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate89%1026W / 123L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% +$3,103
other 15% +$2,503
sports 5% −$1,173
finance 0% +$913
tech 0% +$70
culture 0% −$38
world 0% −$100
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -1.1% -10.5% 99% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 460 -0.8% -10.2% 99% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 994 +2.1% -7.6% 97% 4% -7.7%
all 1149 +2.0% -7.7% 89% 7% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 7% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 4% -17.0%
15% -24.6% 3% -25.0%
20% -32.0% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$52 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses1026 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1149 / 1150
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$304
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Down 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET Jun 21 $2,265 +$32 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 21 $1,122 +$2 +0%
BNB Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET Jun 21 $188 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET Jun 21 $199 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $2,488 +$37 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Jun 21 $131 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 3PM ET Jun 20 $61 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $639 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET Jun 20 $367 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 19? Jun 20 $508 +$6 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $91 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $92 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $75 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $76 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $118 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $115 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $2,501 +$24 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Jun 18 $107 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 17, 5PM ET? Jun 17 $115 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 17, 5PM ET? Jun 17 $112 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $1,101 +$10 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $2,196 +$26 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $4,238 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $4,238 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $4,238 +$4 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $1,072 +$39 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,220 +$2 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $595 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 16? Jun 17 $59 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,000 on June 16, 2PM ET? Jun 16 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $216 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,007 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,400 on June 16, 11AM ET? Jun 16 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 15, 6PM ET? Jun 15 $135 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,840 on June 15, 4PM ET? Jun 15 $145 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,400 on June 15, 4PM ET? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,200 on June 15, 4PM ET? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,800 on June 15, 4PM ET? Jun 15 $145 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 67,000 on June 15, 3PM ET? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 3PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2,265 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1,122 3h
BNB Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 100¢ $35 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $188 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $199 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2,488 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $131 10h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 3PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $61 25h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $552 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $87 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $367 33h
Will XRP reach $1.15 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $508 41h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $91 45h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 45h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $55 46h
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $92 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $75 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $76 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $36 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $118 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $115 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2,501 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $107 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 8PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $47 3d
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 17, 5PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $112 4d
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 17, 5PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $115 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.94 · official $109.94 (match) · 3500 history records