Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A5 0xa53e…d0f5 politics 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$994per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$36
other 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 26 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$914) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage72d
Avg bet$994
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,697 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $880 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,779 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,672 −$3 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $890 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,804 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $893 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $1,808 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $893 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $899 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $897 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $915 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 47h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $874 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $875 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $875 9d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $876 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $877 11d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $878 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $877 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $878 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $878 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $880 17d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $878 21d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $879 22d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $878 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $880 24d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $882 25d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $883 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $883 28d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $884 29d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $883 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $884 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $889 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $890 33d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $889 34d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $890 35d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $890 36d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $892 37d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $892 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.85 · official $43.85 (match) · 110 history records