Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa541…7aef sports 231 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$155 (-8%) realized −$146 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%105W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$25
14 days−$134
30 days−$178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$93
other 9% −$62
crypto 2% −$8
tech 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -0.5% -10.0% 53% 52% -13.8%
≤30d 219 -6.2% -15.2% 48% 47% -17.8%
≤90d 219 -6.2% -15.2% 48% 47% -17.8%
all 219 -6.2% -15.2% 48% 47% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 47% -17.8%
10% -23.3% 45% -25.7%
15% -30.7% 42% -32.8%
20% -37.5% 39% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$146
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses105 / 114
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions12
Markets (closed)219 / 231
History coverage19d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 62¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 24¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-26%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 56¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 38¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-43%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Under 52¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ 40¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 74¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $5 +$5 +89%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $5 +$6 +109%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$6 +118%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 44¢ $5 4m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $5 16m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $5 17m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $10 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $11 1h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $5 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $5 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 14h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 15h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 37¢ $5 16h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $5 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 48¢ $5 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $5 21h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 23h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 60¢ $5 24h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 24h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 27h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 56¢ $5 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $5 29h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 56¢ $5 39h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 40h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 40h
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) SELL Galions 100¢ $9 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 43h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $5 46h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $11 46h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 50¢ $13 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.01 · official $101.01 (match) · 470 history records