Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa542…efd1 crypto 499 markets active 3h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$421 (-9%) realized −$421 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%240W / 259L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$267
14 days−$267
30 days−$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$234
sports 7% −$273
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -21.1% -28.6% 39% 36% -40.7%
≤30d 71 -25.8% -32.9% 39% 37% -41.0%
≤90d 499 -15.4% -23.5% 48% 40% -19.0%
all 499 -15.4% -23.5% 48% 40% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 40% -19.0%
10% -30.8% 32% -26.7%
15% -37.5% 23% -33.8%
20% -43.6% 17% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$421
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses240 / 259
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)499 / 499
History coverage78d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 499 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $24 +$3 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$8 +48%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$66 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$45 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $158 −$158 -100%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 25 $1 +$2 +147%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $24 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 12h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 56¢ $30 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $16 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $17 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 3d
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef SELL Celine Naef 57¢ $57 3d
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef BUY Celine Naef 49¢ $51 3d
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Federico Cina 57¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2028 history records