Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

A5 0xa544…0c80 sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$177 (-6%) realized −$106 · open −$71

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate58%14W / 10L

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$79per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$33est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$395

14 days+$497

30 days+$505

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)+5.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+63.1%	+47.6%	86%	71%	+63.5%
≤30d	23	+22.0%	+10.4%	61%	57%	+11.8%
≤90d	23	+22.0%	+10.4%	61%	57%	+11.8%
all	24	+16.9%	+5.8%	58%	54%	+6.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.8%	54%	+6.9%
10%	-4.3%	54%	-3.4%
15%	-13.6%	46%	-12.7%
20%	-22.0%	46%	-21.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +9% → late +25% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$82 vs −$74 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage

Net worth$76

Realized−$106

Unrealized−$71

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses14 / 10

Est. fees paid−$33

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 40

History coverage140d

Avg bet$79

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	53¢	28¢	$147	$76	−$71 (-48%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$101	+$60	+59%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal l	Jun 23	$71	+$38	+54%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists	Jun 23	$51	−$50	-98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: F	Jun 23	$46	+$2	+3%
Algeria to win the second half?	Jun 23	$71	+$24	+34%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND France	Jun 23	$51	+$72	+141%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Will Egypt win on 2026-	Jun 22	$100	+$249	+250%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$58	−$56	-98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 20	$46	−$45	-98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$46	−$45	-98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19	Jun 20	$72	+$183	+255%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$185	−$183	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$46	+$37	+80%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$60	+$50	+84%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$199	+$161	+81%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$149	−$148	-99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$39	−$38	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$28	+$61	+219%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5	Jun 12	$47	+$31	+66%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 11	$51	−$50	-99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 11	$25	−$25	-98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5	Jun 11	$111	+$63	+56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$497	+$114	+23%
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)	Feb 08	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	53¢	$149	2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-	BUY	18¢	$50	3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	BUY	17¢	$58	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	94¢	$161	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	58¢	$101	4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A	BUY	38¢	$58	5d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 AND Spr	BUY	31¢	$51	5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal l	SELL	73¢	$110	5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goal	BUY	14¢	$25	5d
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portug	BUY	19¢	$26	5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	20¢	$51	5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Ghana: Both	BUY	4¢	$23	5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal l	BUY	46¢	$71	5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: F	SELL	31¢	$48	5d
Algeria to win the second half?	SELL Yes	85¢	$95	5d
Algeria to win the second half?	BUY Yes	62¢	$71	5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND France	SELL	68¢	$123	5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND France	BUY	27¢	$51	6d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: F	BUY	29¢	$46	6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Will Egypt win on 2026-	SELL	99¢	$349	6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Will Egypt win on 2026-	BUY	28¢	$100	6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U	BUY	33¢	$47	7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	61¢	$152	7d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgiu	BUY	21¢	$48	7d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-2	BUY	28¢	$51	7d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/	BUY	44¢	$79	8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Swe	BUY	10¢	$26	8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	39¢	$58	8d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$46	8d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	46¢	$46	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.26 · official $76.26 (match) · 54 history records