Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa548…4c60 crypto 363 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-1%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%353W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days−$28
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$78
other 7% −$14
finance 6% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 172 -2.1% -11.5% 96% 1% -12.6%
≤90d 363 -0.5% -10.0% 97% 1% -10.7%
all 363 -0.5% -10.0% 97% 1% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -10.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -19.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -27.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$22 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses353 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)363 / 363
History coverage68d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 363 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $48 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $49 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 1h
Solana Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 99¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 33h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $48 41h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $49 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $50 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.00 · official $87.00 (match) · 1844 history records