Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa54e…4775 crypto 1580 markets active 9h ago coverage 124d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 123d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$490 (-14%) realized −$490 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%920W / 649L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$28
14 days+$35
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$250
sports 25% −$75
other 24% −$20
weather 5% −$2
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +24.9% +13.0% 51% 47% +6.6%
≤30d 204 -7.8% -16.6% 46% 41% -21.6%
≤90d 919 -0.4% -9.9% 61% 53% -19.9%
all 1569 -3.2% -12.4% 59% 51% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 51% -18.7%
10% -20.8% 39% -26.4%
15% -28.4% 29% -33.5%
20% -35.5% 22% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$490
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses920 / 649
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1569 / 1580
History coverage124d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1569 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $3 +$4 +122%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 +$3 +166%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 19 $2 +$1 +50%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 +$5 +442%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Jun 18 $3 +$5 +153%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 +23%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN Jun 18 $3 +$3 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 +$1 +38%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +31%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +46%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +27%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $2 +$5 +241%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Austri Jun 17 $3 +$6 +190%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$1 +67%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$11 +1116%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +226%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +215%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $1 +$8 +786%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 56¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 12h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 17h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $2 19h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Australia 64¢ $2 19h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $2 19h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? AND Exa BUY 2¢ $1 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Un BUY 36¢ $3 19h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 44¢ $3 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 34h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: BUY 10¢ $1 40h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? AND Exact Score: Me BUY 5¢ $1 41h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 66¢ $2 41h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 35¢ $3 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1 BUY 30¢ $3 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN SELL 90¢ $6 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $2 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $3 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 44¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England vs. Croatia end in a BUY 16¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.37 · official $2.37 (match) · 3500 history records