Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:52:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa553…789d other 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$637 (+6%) realized +$1,020 · open −$383
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%17W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$2,289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$328
7 days+$433
14 days+$644
30 days+$896
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$301
sports 48% +$362
crypto 2% −$129
world 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -47.2% -52.2% 16% 16% +3.6%
≤30d 69 -28.1% -35.0% 25% 25% +1.2%
≤90d 69 -28.1% -35.0% 25% 25% +1.2%
all 69 -28.1% -35.0% 25% 25% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 25% +1.2%
10% -41.2% 25% -8.5%
15% -46.9% 25% -17.3%
20% -52.1% 25% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$303 vs −$82 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$2,289
Realized+$1,020
Unrealized−$383
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses17 / 52
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions18
Markets (closed)69 / 87
History coverage17d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $323 $318 −$5 (-2%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 45¢ $249 $266 +$17 (+7%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $247 $262 +$15 (+6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $320 $236 −$84 (-26%)
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $193 $189 −$5 (-2%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $193 $183 −$10 (-5%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $194 $176 −$18 (-9%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $193 $148 −$45 (-23%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $162 $143 −$19 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $162 $136 −$25 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $214 $85 −$129 (-60%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $32 $29 −$3 (-8%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $64 $27 −$37 (-58%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-39%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $32 $4 −$28 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $246 +$746 +303%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $33 +$51 +156%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? Jun 27 $22 −$21 -96%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 27 $33 −$32 -96%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $246 −$239 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $22 −$21 -96%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $33 −$32 -96%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $255 +$598 +234%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $111 −$107 -96%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 2 Iraq? Jun 26 $33 −$32 -96%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 3 Iraq? Jun 26 $55 −$53 -96%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET Jun 26 $22 −$20 -93%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 26 $99 −$95 -96%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $55 −$53 -96%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $666 −$644 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 3 Belgium? Jun 26 $22 −$21 -96%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 26 $232 −$224 -96%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $33 −$32 -96%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $66 −$64 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 26 $22 −$21 -96%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 3 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $33 +$42 +126%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $366 +$901 +246%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -96%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -96%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $33 −$32 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $11 −$10 -96%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $33 −$32 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 23 $18 −$17 -96%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Ghana? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -96%
Exact Score: Panama 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $18 −$17 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $18 −$17 -96%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $33 −$32 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $33 −$32 -96%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $33 +$112 +340%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $66 −$64 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $33 −$32 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $99 −$96 -97%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $100 +$156 +156%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $232 +$249 +107%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $666 +$420 +63%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $999 −$974 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $355 +$366 +103%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $22 −$21 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $55 +$39 +72%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $55 +$48 +88%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $22 −$21 -96%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $33 +$85 +259%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $33 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $333 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $222 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $33 2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $33 2h
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 1¢ $22 24h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 4¢ $33 24h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $246 24h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 24h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $33 24h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $246 24h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 7¢ $200 32h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 7¢ $200 32h
Will Canada reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $200 32h
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $200 32h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $200 32h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $168 32h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $168 32h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $333 32h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $111 33h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 2 Iraq? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 34h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 3 Iraq? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 34h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 0¢ $2 34h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $22 35h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $99 35h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 35h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $222 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,288.80 · official $2,290.11 (match) · 131 history records