Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa553…3c98 other 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 170d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$1,323 (+1%) realized +$1,564 · open −$241
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate62%69W / 43L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,407per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$2,839now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 170d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$4,634
world 20% +$282
other 10% −$1,178
tech 5% +$252
crypto 2% +$23
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 33 -27.5% -34.4% 42% 9% -11.3%
all 112 +39.8% +26.5% 62% 27% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.5% 27% -12.8%
10% +14.4% 21% -21.1%
15% +3.4% 15% -28.8%
20% -6.8% 12% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$955) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +101% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$205 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$2,839
Realized+$1,564
Unrealized−$241
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses69 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 115
History coverage170d
Avg bet$1,407
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 62¢ $1,350 $1,675 +$325 (+24%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $1,350 $1,025 −$325 (-24%)
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $51 $135 +$84 (+165%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? No 43¢ 46¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $70,116 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,732 +$3 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,780 +$22 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,779 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 17 $1,361 −$510 -38%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 17 $1,046 −$274 -26%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 01 $2,911 +$3 +0%
Will Trump dance today? Apr 29 $2,908 +$3 +0%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Apr 25 $2,905 +$3 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $5,802 +$3 +0%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal pre Apr 17 $8 −$7 -89%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 17 $56 +$14 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Apr 17 $251 −$251 -100%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win the first round? Apr 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Apr 17 $204 −$201 -99%
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? Apr 17 $98 −$11 -11%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 202 Apr 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Apr 17 $340 −$24 -7%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal pr Apr 17 $67 −$3 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 Apr 17 $440 −$266 -60%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the first round? Apr 17 $8 −$5 -56%
Will António José Seguro win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Po Apr 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port Apr 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 17 $61 +$9 +14%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 17 $783 −$548 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Apr 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 12, 2026? Apr 12 $2,829 +$70 +2%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $974 +$1 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $1,848 +$7 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 08 $1,331 +$42 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 08 $1,323 +$59 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 08 $95 −$45 -47%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Mar 30 $2 +$4 +150%
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Mar 09 $1,150 −$422 -37%
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württember Mar 09 $5,105 −$3,944 -77%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026? Mar 08 $2,785 +$8 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 06 $17 −$6 -33%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 06 $75 +$3 +4%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 06 $123 +$34 +28%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 5, 2026? Mar 06 $2,754 +$7 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 5, 2026? Mar 05 $1,062 +$10 +1%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $2,729 +$16 +1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 04 $935 +$687 +74%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $2,596 +$2 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $2,527 +$5 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 9, 2026? Feb 28 $48 +$15 +31%
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026? Feb 26 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $7 +$7 +94%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 51¢ $26 5m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 52¢ $17 8m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 52¢ $27 8m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O SELL No 48¢ $23 18m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 51¢ $52 19m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 50¢ $51 20m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 49¢ $10 20m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 49¢ $21 32m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 48¢ $50 32m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 46¢ $4 33m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 46¢ $16 34m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 46¢ $4 35m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY No 42¢ $52 39m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 49¢ $26 44m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY No 42¢ $44 48m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 50¢ $92 49m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY No 48¢ $25 51m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY No 45¢ $26 53m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY No 41¢ $38 54m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 49¢ $50 56m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY No 51¢ $5 58m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY No 50¢ $20 1h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 50¢ $26 1h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY No 39¢ $33 1h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY Yes 49¢ $57 1h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY No 45¢ $9 1h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY No 43¢ $141 1h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY No 42¢ $7 1h
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–O BUY No 40¢ $81 1h
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $43 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,839.09 · official $2,839.45 (match) · 1437 history records