Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa555…20ba politics 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,776 (-1%) realized −$1,778 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%20W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,035per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,055now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$9
14 days−$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$69
other 38% −$180
sports 17% −$1,553
culture 2% −$4
economics 2% −$3
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 +3.6% -6.3% 14% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 91 +0.7% -8.9% 8% 4% -10.3%
all 153 -6.1% -15.1% 13% 9% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 9% -10.5%
10% -23.2% 9% -19.1%
15% -30.6% 8% -26.9%
20% -37.4% 7% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,443) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$19 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$1,055
Realized−$1,778
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses20 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)153 / 155
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,035
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $730 $730 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $323 $326 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $2,265 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,139 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,284 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,868 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $2,140 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $936 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 08 $1,073 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $766 −$1 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $77 +$57 +73%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,866 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,494 −$5 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $43 +$58 +134%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $96 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $936 −$1 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $42 +$54 +129%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $407 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $2,495 −$2 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 10 $203 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $203 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $203 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $203 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $203 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $204 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $204 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $205 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $203 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 06 $409 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $207 $0 -0%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) May 04 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $4,289 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $1,967 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $2,017 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $976 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $730 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $734 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $735 3h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $732 45h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $733 46h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $732 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $733 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $508 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $509 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $459 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $460 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $708 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $710 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $567 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $568 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $736 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $737 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $738 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $739 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $739 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $740 9d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $738 10d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $739 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $324 11d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,068 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,069 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,070 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,071 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $951 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $953 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,055.35 · official $1,055.35 (match) · 501 history records