Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa556…ed9a other 306 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$375 (-12%) realized −$368 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%83W / 198L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$434
14 days−$467
30 days−$429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$257
sports 23% −$147
world 6% −$12
weather 5% −$13
politics 3% −$8
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -24.9% -32.1% 25% 13% -39.2%
≤30d 274 -17.9% -25.7% 30% 20% -23.4%
≤90d 281 -18.4% -26.1% 30% 20% -23.5%
all 281 -18.4% -26.1% 30% 20% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.1% 20% -23.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.2% 13% -30.8%
15% -39.7% 9% -37.5%
20% -45.6% 6% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$368
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses83 / 198
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions11
Markets (closed)281 / 306
History coverage31d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Bank of Israel hike by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting? No 94¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$2 (-16%)
Will the Bank of Israel cut by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting? No 87¢ 73¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? No 60¢ 56¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7% in June? No 55¢ 82¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in June? No 98¢ 82¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Will UK annual inflation be at least 3.4% in June? No 98¢ 81¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.8% and 3% in June? No 98¢ 80¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? No 60¢ 48¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-19%)
Will UK annual inflation be 2.1% or less in June? No 88¢ 75¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4% in June? No 56¢ 64¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 $0 +6%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Jun 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +42%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -56%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $130-$132 on the final day of trading of Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $134-$136 on the final day of trading of Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $132-$134 on the final day of trading of Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at >$140 on the final day of trading of the Jun 18 $5 $0 -6%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $126-$128 on the final day of trading of Jun 18 $4 $0 -8%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $136-$138 on the final day of trading of Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $33 +$4 +13%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $46 +$2 +5%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $305-$310 on the final day of trading of th Jun 18 $7 −$1 -13%
Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -28%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -60%
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 18 $15 −$3 -19%
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 20? Jun 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? Jun 18 $4 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 20? Jun 18 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 20? Jun 18 $4 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 20? Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 20? Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 20? Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 $0 -1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 18 $6 $0 -6%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $31 +$7 +22%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +7%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $36 −$5 -14%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $13 +$9 +72%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +12%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $17 +$2 +11%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 93¢ $5 5m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $5 5m
Will CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw? SELL No 64¢ $3 54m
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? SELL No 32¢ $2 54m
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 42¢ $3 54m
Will CF Universidad de Chile vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw? BUY No 59¢ $3 54m
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.8% and 3% in June? BUY No 98¢ $7 3h
Will UK annual inflation be 2.1% or less in June? BUY No 88¢ $6 3h
Will UK annual inflation be at least 3.4% in June? BUY No 98¢ $7 3h
Will UK annual inflation be between 3.1% and 3.3% in June? BUY No 98¢ $7 3h
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.2% and 2.4% in June? BUY No 56¢ $4 3h
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7% in June? BUY No 55¢ $4 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 99¢ $20 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 98¢ $20 3h
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? SELL No 93¢ $15 3h
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? BUY No 93¢ $15 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 7¢ $1 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 7¢ $1 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 96¢ $5 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $2 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $4 5h
Will the Bank of Israel cut by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeti BUY No 87¢ $10 6h
Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting? BUY No 60¢ $7 6h
Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? BUY No 60¢ $7 6h
Will the Bank of Israel hike by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meet BUY No 94¢ $10 6h
Will the Bank of Israel hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? BUY No 94¢ $10 6h
Will UK annual inflation be 2.1% or less in June? SELL No 49¢ $3 6h
Will UK annual inflation be 2.1% or less in June? BUY No 54¢ $4 6h
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $130-$132 on the final day of trading of SELL No 96¢ $5 6h
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $134-$136 on the final day of trading of SELL No 94¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.06 · official $70.88 (match) · 791 history records