Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:03:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa557…6968 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$102 (-7%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate90%26W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -5.6% -14.6% 90% 3% -16.4%
≤30d 29 -5.6% -14.6% 90% 3% -16.4%
≤90d 29 -5.6% -14.6% 90% 3% -16.4%
all 29 -5.6% -14.6% 90% 3% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 3% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 0% -24.4%
15% -30.2% 0% -31.7%
20% -37.0% 0% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$49 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses26 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $102 −$52 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $47 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $47 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $49 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $49 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $47 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $47 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records