Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:31:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A5 0xa559…f06f other 546 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%540W / 2L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$5
sports 39% +$11
politics 2% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% +$5
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 323 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 1% -8.9%
≤90d 542 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 1% -8.8%
all 542 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 1% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 1% -8.8%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.5 per $1 lost it wins $5.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses540 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)542 / 546
History coverage86d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 542 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Guilleme vs. Ciavarella: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Set 2 Winner: Marchi vs Chestovaliev Marchi 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Luescher vs. Lahey: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ryan Thomas: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Mehdi Taremi: 5+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Mahdi Torabi: 2+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Rodrigo Bentancur: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Brian Rodríguez: 1+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Federico Viñas: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Luke Keaschall: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Xavier Edwards: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Guillermo Varela: 2+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Federico Viñas: 2+ goals Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Facundo Pellistri: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Pedro Porro: 3+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Marcos Llorente: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be in the headlines this week? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Yasin Ayari: 2+ assists Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Anthony Elanga: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Colton Sissons lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Elias Achouri: 3+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan Elloumi: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Khalil Ayari: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Rayan Elloumi: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Herman Johansson: 3+ goals Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Memphis Depay: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Evann Guessand: 2+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Grêmio Novorizontino 1 - 1 Clube Náutico Capibaribe? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Tijjani Reijnders: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Denzel Dumfries: 2+ goals + assists Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Nathaniel Brown: 3+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Cuiabá EC 1 - 2 Vila Nova FC? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 1 - 1 Goiás EC? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Justin Kluivert: 5+ shots Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
David Raum: 2+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Nick Woltemade: 2+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CD Concepción 2 - 2 CD Limache? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Tanger 3 - 2 US Yacoub El Mansour? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Raja Club Athletic 2 - 3 UnionTouargaSports? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: FK Haugesund 2 - 3 Ranheim? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-9.5) vs Virtus.pro (+9.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals + assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Fallon attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 7m
Set 2 Winner: Marchi vs Chestovaliev BUY Marchi 100¢ $4 27m
Guilleme vs. Ciavarella: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 3h
Luescher vs. Lahey: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 4h
Ryan Thomas: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Mehdi Taremi: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 7h
Mahdi Torabi: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Rodrigo Bentancur: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Brian Rodríguez: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $5 10h
Federico Viñas: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 10h
Luke Keaschall: Home Runs O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 11h
Xavier Edwards: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 12h
Guillermo Varela: 2+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 13h
Facundo Pellistri: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 13h
Federico Viñas: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 13h
Emam Ashour: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 14h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 16h
Pedro Porro: 3+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 19h
Marcos Llorente: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 19h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 22h
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be in the headlines this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 30h
Yasin Ayari: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $4 31h
Anthony Elanga: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 31h
Elias Achouri: 3+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Rayan Elloumi: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Rayan Elloumi: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Khalil Ayari: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.95 · official $13.95 (match) · 1099 history records