Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa55a…75a6 sports 183 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,960 (-4%) realized −$1,960 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate78%142W / 41L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$93
14 days+$160
30 days−$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$2,073
other 15% +$112
politics 7% −$499
world 2% +$175
crypto 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.4% -8.3% 79% 57% -12.0%
≤30d 68 +0.4% -9.2% 82% 54% -12.2%
≤90d 183 -6.8% -15.7% 78% 48% -13.7%
all 183 -6.8% -15.7% 78% 48% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 48% -13.7%
10% -23.8% 24% -21.9%
15% -31.1% 10% -29.5%
20% -37.9% 3% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$162 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,960
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses142 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage241d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$39 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $148 −$147 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 +$31 +42%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $131 +$9 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $299 +$7 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $148 +$53 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $207 +$41 +20%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $186 +$20 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $90 +$36 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $318 −$318 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $155 +$64 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $134 +$19 +14%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$17 +34%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $69 +$21 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $166 +$10 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $74 +$48 +65%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $49 −$4 -8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $111 +$12 +11%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $61 +$21 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$8 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $147 +$14 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $94 +$41 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $150 +$13 +8%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $86 +$37 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $487 +$50 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $100 +$21 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $65 +$20 +31%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $222 +$44 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $401 +$20 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 06 $301 +$56 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $104 +$43 +41%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $252 +$58 +23%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 30 $184 +$24 +13%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $401 +$36 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $79 +$6 +7%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $101 +$28 +27%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $186 +$16 +8%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 29 $56 −$55 -99%
SE Palmeiras vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 1.5 May 29 $100 +$7 +7%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $101 −$100 -99%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $299 +$32 +11%
CA River Plate vs. Club Blooming: O/U 1.5 May 28 $312 +$41 +13%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $100 +$29 +29%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $150 +$34 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $271 +$46 +17%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $200 +$32 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $148 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $131 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $76 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $299 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $148 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $207 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $186 42h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $90 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $49 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $318 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $155 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $134 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $69 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $100 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $166 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 76¢ $45 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $49 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $74 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $111 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $50 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $90 4d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 100¢ $82 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 77¢ $109 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 5d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 74¢ $61 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $147 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $150 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $94 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 370 history records