Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa55c…1066 sports 1252 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$61 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%593W / 657L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$467est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$559
7 days+$135
14 days+$340
30 days−$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$304
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +5.8% -4.2% 47% 45% -7.3%
≤30d 177 -4.4% -13.5% 45% 42% -11.9%
≤90d 1184 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 42% -11.2%
all 1250 -4.2% -13.3% 47% 44% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 44% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 38% -19.0%
15% -29.2% 31% -26.8%
20% -36.1% 25% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses593 / 657
Est. fees paid−$467
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1250 / 1252
History coverage97d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Playoffs Fortress 45¢ 60¢ $99 $132 +$33 (+33%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage KOLESIE 50¢ 26¢ $118 $63 −$56 (-47%)
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage ROSE 33¢ 34¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 160 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: SK Gaming vs Galions (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $28 +$1 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $39 −$39 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $119 +$39 +32%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $22 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $52 +$40 +76%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $165 +$64 +39%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $163 −$160 -98%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$38 +388%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $143 +$139 +97%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $13 −$12 -97%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $167 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 +$38 +124%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $71 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $68 +$31 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$40 +134%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$31 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $43 +$28 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $53 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $197 +$187 +95%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $162 +$101 +62%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $179 −$177 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $105 +$198 +188%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 14 $123 +$37 +30%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOUD vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - South America Lea Jun 13 $48 +$14 +29%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$122 +712%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $75 −$74 -98%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $40 +$39 +97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$4 +140%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $29 +$118 +414%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 13 $68 −$68 -99%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $99 +$12 +12%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $65 −$64 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $54 −$53 -98%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $310 +$241 +78%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 13 $46 +$9 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY Fortress 45¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $120 2h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY ROSE 33¢ $60 3h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 30¢ $52 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 43¢ $29 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $39 16h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 75¢ $119 18h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Game Master 35¢ $22 20h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 40¢ $28 23h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $52 24h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Falcons Esport 64¢ $18 24h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $60 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 47¢ $73 28h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 39¢ $78 29h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 41¢ $85 29h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 58¢ $77 29h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 68¢ $92 29h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 67¢ $303 29h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 9¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 54¢ $165 2d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $167 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $143 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $98 2d
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 34¢ $71 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 20¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 38¢ $24 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 2 Winner BUY Festina Lente 63¢ $31 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $53 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.12 · official $256.22 (match) · 3012 history records