Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa561…13a2 crypto 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$214 (+7%) realized +$201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%47W / 77L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$11
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% +$120
culture 15% +$110
crypto 8% −$18
world 3% −$10
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -6.4% -15.3% 36% 21% -8.7%
≤30d 83 -12.2% -20.6% 36% 28% -16.3%
≤90d 83 -12.2% -20.6% 36% 28% -16.3%
all 124 +1.9% -7.8% 38% 29% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 29% -3.3%
10% -16.6% 23% -12.6%
15% -24.7% 18% -21.0%
20% -32.1% 15% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses47 / 77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage567d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "The Substance"? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "Magic Candies" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Constellation Brands (STZ) beat quarterly earnings? No 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Will "Anuja" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will 'Sing Sing' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "A Complete Unknown"? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will "Conclave" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Sean Baker win Best Director at the 2025 BAFTA Awards for "Anora"? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will "A Real Pain" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will "The Smashing Machine" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m? No 55¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will "The Journey" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will 'Nickel Boys' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture? No 53¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 06 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 06 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 459 history records