Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:19:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa566…72de sports 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,885 (+2%) realized +$2,898 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate39%90W / 141L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$687per market
Trades / day61.4pace
Fees−$2,805est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$829
other 15% −$29
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -26.0% -33.1% 32% 13% -20.1%
≤30d 86 -15.6% -23.6% 40% 9% -13.2%
≤90d 231 -11.1% -19.5% 39% 16% -10.0%
all 231 -11.1% -19.5% 39% 16% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 16% -10.0%
10% -27.2% 6% -18.6%
15% ← realistic here -34.3% 3% -26.5%
20% -40.7% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$553) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$53 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized+$2,898
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses90 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2,805
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$687
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $405 $392 −$13 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $305 −$19 -6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $12 −$10 -85%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $2,828 +$405 +14%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $1,478 −$45 -3%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $101 −$9 -8%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $96 +$3 +3%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $397 +$29 +7%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $433 +$5 +1%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $200 +$10 +5%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $347 −$347 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,645 −$67 -4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $5,797 −$3,425 -59%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $3,404 +$51 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,708 −$8 -0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $501 +$42 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -23%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $859 +$574 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $513 −$86 -17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $532 −$65 -12%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13 −$1 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $545 +$552 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $719 −$38 -5%
João Neves: 1+ goals Jun 17 $172 $0 -0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $358 −$350 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $718 +$76 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +19%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $60 −$58 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 $0 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $904 −$18 -2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,932 −$221 -8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $307 +$5 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $115 −$18 -16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $102 −$14 -14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $26 −$3 -11%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $4,852 −$144 -3%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $917 −$18 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 18¢ $3 23m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $286 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $305 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 3¢ $2 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $12 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,447 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 98¢ $700 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 94¢ $701 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL Yes 26¢ $198 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $239 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL No 54¢ $932 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL Yes 42¢ $303 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 40¢ $713 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 73¢ $477 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $51 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $1,785 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $713 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $713 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 68¢ $92 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 73¢ $101 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $99 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 96¢ $96 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes 73¢ $426 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $202 24h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 69¢ $195 24h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $438 25h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 98¢ $433 25h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $211 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 96¢ $100 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.26 · official $392.26 (match) · 3500 history records