Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:31:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa574…ce51 crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$124 (-28%) realized −$34 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$124
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.0% +7.6% 56% 56% -19.5%
≤30d 9 +19.0% +7.6% 56% 56% -19.5%
≤90d 9 +19.0% +7.6% 56% 56% -19.5%
all 9 +19.0% +7.6% 56% 56% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 56% -19.5%
10% -2.7% 56% -27.2%
15% -12.1% 56% -34.2%
20% -20.7% 56% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$46 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Up 30¢ 2¢ $94 $5 −$89 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$60 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$29 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$21 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.08 · official $24.08 (match) · 24 history records