Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa579…6dbe weather 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate88%122W / 17L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$23
sports 0% +$3
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 31 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 98 -1.2% -10.6% 98% 1% -9.4%
all 139 -2.0% -11.3% 88% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 6% -9.2%
10% -19.8% 6% -17.9%
15% -27.6% 5% -25.8%
20% -34.7% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses122 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage116d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $73 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 22? Jun 22 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 20 Jun 20 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 10? Jun 11 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 9? Jun 10 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 8? Jun 09 $71 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 7? Jun 08 $71 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on June 4? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 4? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 3? Jun 04 $71 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 2? Jun 03 $71 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 31? Jun 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 29? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on May 29? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on May 27? May 28 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on May 26? May 27 $69 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on May 25? May 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 24? May 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 23? May 24 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on May 22 May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on May 22? May 23 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 21? May 22 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 20? May 21 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 17? May 20 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 16? May 17 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 15? May 16 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 14? May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 14? May 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on May 12? May 13 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on May 11? May 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on May 10? May 11 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on May 9? May 10 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 8? May 09 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on May 7? May 08 $69 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $73 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $73 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $73 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $72 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 20 BUY No 100¢ $72 4d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $72 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $72 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $72 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $72 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $72 9d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $72 10d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 13 BUY No 100¢ $72 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $72 12d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 11 BUY No 100¢ $71 13d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $71 14d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $71 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $71 16d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $71 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $36 20d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $35 20d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $71 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $71 22d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $70 23d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $70 24d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $69 25d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $34 26d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $35 26d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $69 27d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $69 28d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $69 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.85 · official $72.82 (match) · 269 history records