Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A5 0xa57c…bf42 crypto 910 markets active 3h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$181 (-4%) realized −$179 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%493W / 422L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day76.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$34
14 days−$32
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$346
other 2% −$19
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -3.8% -12.9% 47% 47% -18.5%
≤30d 473 +5.6% -4.5% 48% 45% -15.9%
≤90d 915 +8.7% -1.6% 54% 49% -17.0%
all 915 +8.7% -1.6% 54% 49% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 49% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 42% -24.9%
15% -19.6% 34% -32.2%
20% -27.5% 26% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$179
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses493 / 422
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)915 / 910
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day76.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 915 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 311 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$18 -92%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +404%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$6 +227%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +152%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 +$5 +226%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$5 +226%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +76%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +140%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 33¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 32h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 40h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 40h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $2 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 27¢ $2 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $2 3d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $2 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 34¢ $2 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 29¢ $2 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 3d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 30¢ $2 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.56 · official $0.56 (match) · 3500 history records