Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A5 0xa57e…ed54 sports 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,375 (-13%) realized −$1,390 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%30W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$439
7 days−$439
14 days−$439
30 days−$439
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$690
other 11% −$653
crypto 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -34.2% -40.5% 20% 20% -55.4%
≤30d 5 -34.2% -40.5% 20% 20% -55.4%
≤90d 18 -24.3% -31.5% 17% 17% -43.5%
all 75 -9.5% -18.1% 40% 36% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 36% -22.0%
10% -26.0% 29% -29.5%
15% -33.1% 25% -36.3%
20% -39.7% 23% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$72 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$506
Realized−$1,390
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses30 / 45
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)75 / 78
History coverage117d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 50¢ $224 $249 +$25 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Walczaki 35¢ 34¢ $141 $135 −$6 (-4%)
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner Los Angeles Thieves 74¢ 72¢ $126 $122 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $212 −$62 -29%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $107 +$169 +158%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $191 −$188 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $203 −$199 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $162 −$159 -98%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MAGICOS (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South Apr 05 $147 −$7 -5%
Map Handicap: R2 (-1.5) vs BESTIA Academy (+1.5) Apr 05 $100 −$17 -17%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? Apr 04 $198 −$195 -98%
LoL: Supernova vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers Leagu Apr 04 $100 +$188 +188%
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Ayan Mar 28 $200 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: TNC vs Hashiras (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Group St Mar 28 $169 −$169 -100%
La Salle Explorers vs. Army Black Knights (W) Mar 25 $203 −$203 -100%
Moeller vs. Ruiz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Mar 23 $100 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Muttley Crew vs Arcade Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 23 $100 −$2 -2%
LoL: Berlin International Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Map Handicap: O49 (-1.5) vs regain (+1.5) Mar 23 $50 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Mar 22 $100 +$75 +75%
Miami Open, Qualification: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Coleman Wong Mar 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Zakharova vs. Tararudee: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Mar 16 $100 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Mar 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? Mar 08 $406 −$406 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Grou Mar 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Cerundolo vs. Rinderknech: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Mar 08 $100 −$2 -2%
Cerundolo vs. Rinderknech: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Mar 08 $300 −$6 -2%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner Mar 07 $400 +$283 +71%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Pigeons (BO3) - BC Game Masters Group Stage Mar 07 $57 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - BC Game Masters Group Mar 07 $80 −$2 -2%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Antalya 2: Katarzyna Kawa vs Tamara Zidansek Mar 06 $650 −$77 -12%
Counter-Strike: megoshort vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Mar 06 $300 +$199 +66%
Luka Pavlovic vs. Stefano Napolitano: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Mar 05 $47 +$13 +28%
LoL: French Flair vs TLN Pirates - Game 4 Winner Mar 04 $200 +$118 +59%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episod Mar 04 $133 +$86 +65%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - CBLOL Cup Playoffs Feb 28 $37 +$31 +83%
Medvedev vs. Griekspoor: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Feb 28 $100 −$34 -34%
Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs Griekspoor Feb 28 $150 −$46 -31%
Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5 Feb 28 $100 +$85 +85%
Spread: Buffalo Bulls (-5.5) Feb 28 $0 $0 -4%
StarCraft II: SHIN vs ShoWTimE (BO7) - PiG Sty Festival Playoffs Feb 28 $3 −$1 -33%
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs. Georgia State Panthers (W) Feb 27 $8 +$2 +18%
Valorant: 100 Thieves GC vs Blue Otter GC (BO3) - VCT Game Changers No Feb 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-02-27? Feb 27 $186 +$16 +8%
FK Zenit vs. FK Baltika Kaliningrad: Both Teams to Score Feb 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 27 $50 +$42 +85%
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-02-26? Feb 26 $60 +$36 +61%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $327 −$123 -38%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Feb 26 $50 −$37 -74%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $122 +$35 +29%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 74¢ $127 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $228 6h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 35¢ $144 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $276 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $191 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $203 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 70¢ $212 26h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Leo Team 30¢ $162 26h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $107 26h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MAGICOS (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South BUY ShindeN 51¢ $47 75d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MAGICOS (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South SELL ShindeN 50¢ $95 75d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MAGICOS (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South BUY ShindeN 52¢ $100 75d
Map Handicap: R2 (-1.5) vs BESTIA Academy (+1.5) BUY BESTIA Academy 60¢ $100 76d
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 48¢ $198 76d
LoL: Supernova vs CCG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers Leagu BUY CCG Esports 34¢ $100 76d
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-03-29? BUY Yes 32¢ $50 82d
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Ayan BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 51¢ $200 83d
Counter-Strike: TNC vs Hashiras (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Group St BUY Hashiras 50¢ $169 83d
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-03-29? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 83d
La Salle Explorers vs. Army Black Knights (W) BUY La Salle Explorers 11¢ $203 85d
Moeller vs. Ruiz: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $100 88d
Counter-Strike: Muttley Crew vs Arcade Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Arcade Esports 51¢ $100 88d
LoL: Berlin International Gaming vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 52¢ $100 88d
Map Handicap: O49 (-1.5) vs regain (+1.5) BUY regain 51¢ $50 88d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL Ilbirs eSports 100¢ $175 88d
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Ilbirs eSports 57¢ $100 89d
Miami Open, Qualification: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Coleman Wong BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 57¢ $200 95d
Zakharova vs. Tararudee: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 SELL Under 50¢ $98 95d
Zakharova vs. Tararudee: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $100 95d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $140 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.67 · official $505.67 (match) · 186 history records