Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A5 0xa57e…9df6 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$172 (+7%) realized +$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$20
sports 33% +$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +54.4% +39.7% 83% 67% -3.8%
≤30d 6 +54.4% +39.7% 83% 67% -3.8%
≤90d 6 +54.4% +39.7% 83% 67% -3.8%
all 6 +54.4% +39.7% 83% 67% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.7% 67% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here +26.3% 50% -13.0%
15% +14.1% 50% -21.4%
20% +2.9% 33% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$71 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $773 +$154 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,223 +$50 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $416 −$71 -17%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $7 +$13 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 88¢ $102 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 54¢ $63 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 54¢ $0 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $507 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $533 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 53¢ $363 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 54¢ $375 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $10 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $10 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $38 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $7 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $2 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $342 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $324 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $343 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $360 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 77¢ $462 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 55¢ $334 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 61¢ $345 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $416 4h
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 72¢ $10 9h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Jerome Kym 34¢ $7 30h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 51¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records