Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:03:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa583…3547 crypto 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$133 (-38%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$182
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-60.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -56.3% -60.4% 20% 20% -59.8%
≤30d 5 -56.3% -60.4% 20% 20% -59.8%
≤90d 5 -56.3% -60.4% 20% 20% -59.8%
all 5 -56.3% -60.4% 20% 20% -59.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.4% 20% -59.8%
10% -64.2% 20% -63.7%
15% -67.7% 20% -67.2%
20% -70.8% 20% -70.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$67 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $68 +$81 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $93 −$88 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $53 −$50 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $53 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records