Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa583…aefd other 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate72%54W / 21L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$19
crypto 19% +$3
world 18% −$2
finance 11% +$15
politics 8% +$10
culture 4% +$7
economics 3% −$2
sports 2% −$1
tech 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +7.4% -2.8% 91% 82% -2.7%
≤90d 39 -1.1% -10.5% 77% 33% -7.9%
all 75 -2.3% -11.6% 72% 23% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 23% -8.3%
10% -20.1% 9% -17.1%
15% -27.8% 3% -25.1%
20% -34.9% 1% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses54 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)75 / 98
History coverage138d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 54¢ 47¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-13%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 55¢ 21¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 75¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 81¢ 75¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 89¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $9 +$4 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 03 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $17 +$2 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 03 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 03 $18 +$4 +24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $12 +$2 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 03 $17 +$2 +10%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $19 +$1 +7%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $29 +$5 +16%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 04 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $22 +$3 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 04 $9 +$1 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 04 $8 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 04 $18 +$2 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 04 $15 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 04 $28 +$2 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 04 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 04 $22 +$3 +13%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $13 −$1 -6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 25 $44 −$14 -32%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 18 $25 −$3 -13%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $77 +$8 +10%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $62 −$10 -17%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Apr 01 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 01 $16 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $64 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 01 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 28 $36 +$1 +2%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 28 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $62 +$1 +1%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $18 +$7 +35%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 11 $9 $0 +4%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 08 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Mar 04 $24 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in February? Mar 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Mar 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in February? Mar 04 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 97¢ $48 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $48 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $49 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? SELL No 98¢ $11 2h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $11 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 89¢ $10 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $16 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $17 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $17 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $17 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $17 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $18 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $18 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $19 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 90¢ $12 8d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.55 · official $72.55 · 351 history records