trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 15¢ | 17¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+10%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 57¢ | 82¢ | $2 | $3 | +$1 (+45%) |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Yes | 35¢ | 28¢ | $3 | $2 | −$1 (-20%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 61¢ | 53¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-13%) |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 48¢ | 12¢ | $5 | $1 | −$4 (-74%) |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 40¢ | 48¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+19%) |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? | Yes | 13¢ | 15¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+15%) |
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | No | 50¢ | 49¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 68¢ | 56¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-18%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? | May 06 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Market | side | price | size | when |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m | SELL Yes | 98¢ | $1 | 2h |
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY No | 50¢ | $1 | 9d |
| Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? | BUY Yes | 13¢ | $1 | 9d |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele | BUY Yes | 40¢ | $1 | 9d |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY No | 68¢ | $1 | 10d |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY No | 61¢ | $2 | 10d |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | BUY Yes | 35¢ | $3 | 11d |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m | BUY Yes | 89¢ | $1 | 11d |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | BUY No | 31¢ | $2 | 17d |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY No | 57¢ | $2 | 20d |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? | BUY No | 33¢ | $2 | 41d |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY Yes | 15¢ | $3 | 41d |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | BUY No | 75¢ | $3 | 44d |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +8.5% | -1.8% | 100% | 0% | -1.8% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +8.5% | -1.8% | 100% | 0% | -1.8% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -45.7% | -50.9% | 50% | 0% | -67.6% |
| all | 2 | -45.7% | -50.9% | 50% | 0% | -67.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -50.9% | 0% | -67.6% |
| 10% | -55.6% | 0% | -70.7% |
| 15% | -59.9% | 0% | -73.5% |
| 20% | -63.8% | 0% | -76.1% |