Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A5 0xa585…8875 world 10 markets active 2d ago coverage 145d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$11,147 (+139%) realized +$11,147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +163% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +128% what you keep after slip
Net edge+128%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$804per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$175
7 days+$7,290
14 days+$9,418
30 days+$10,394
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$11,147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+137.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +168.1% +142.6% 50% 50% +132.8%
≤30d 6 +171.5% +145.6% 67% 67% +139.4%
≤90d 6 +171.5% +145.6% 67% 67% +139.4%
all 10 +162.9% +137.9% 50% 50% +125.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +137.9% 50% +125.4%
10% +115.1% 50% +103.8%
15% +94.3% 50% +84.1%
20% +75.3% 50% +66.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +165% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +163% · $-wt +147% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,512 vs −$282 · ×8.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.89 per $1 lost it wins $8.89
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage145d
Avg bet$804
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $2,224 −$175 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $1,915 +$4,961 +259%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $483 +$2,517 +521%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $973 +$2,128 +219%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $708 +$976 +138%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $220 +$1,976 +900%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $400 −$400 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $200 −$200 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 23 $906 −$624 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 36h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $795 39h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $795 39h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $413 39h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $28 39h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $452 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $33 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $82 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $285 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $120 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $677 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $66 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $118 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $44 44h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $203 44h
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $100 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $35 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records