Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa589…faee
other · 248 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses177 / 63
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)240 / 248
History coverage288d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%
Chart Positions 8 History 240 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 93¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 91¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 88¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Under 74¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Over 84¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 88¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-28? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Sweden win on 2025-09-08? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 1.5 Over 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-21? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? Yes 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? Yes 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? Yes 93¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-21? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Toulouse FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Osasuna win on 2025-10-26? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Tottenham win on 2025-09-27? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-09-09? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ghana win on 2025-09-04? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 07 $1 $0 +22%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 07 $1 $0 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 07 $2 $0 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 07 $2 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 07 $2 $0 +22%
Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5) May 29 $1 $0 +23%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 29 $1 $0 +40%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 24 $1 $0 +24%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $1 $0 +32%
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5 May 20 $1 $0 +23%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 20 $1 $0 +42%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: Both Teams to Score May 20 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 10 $1 $0 +36%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 10 $1 $0 +38%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $1 +$1 +48%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 05 $1 $0 +26%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 04 $1 $0 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 04 $1 $0 +15%
AFC Ajax vs. PSV: O/U 2.5 May 04 $1 $0 +20%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 29? May 02 $1 $0 +17%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 02 $1 $0 +29%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-29? May 02 $1 +$1 +65%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 02 $1 +$1 +47%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +20%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +7%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +15%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 02 $2 $0 +12%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 28 $1 $0 +20%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5 Apr 28 $1 $0 +29%
FC Augsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $1 +$1 +48%
Hamburger SV vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score Apr 28 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 25 $1 $0 +37%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-18? Apr 25 $1 $0 +44%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 18? Apr 18 $1 $0 +28%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $1 $0 +34%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 17 $1 $0 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 11 $1 $0 +30%
AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5 Apr 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Czechia vs. Denmark: O/U 1.5 Apr 02 $1 $0 +40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Apr 02 $1 $0 +46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +27%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Apr 02 $2 +$1 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% −$10
economics 21% $0
sports 10% +$11
crypto 9% +$3
politics 0% $0
world 1% −$3
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY No 96¢ $2 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 75¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 1h
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 71¢ $1 20d
Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5) BUY Torino FC 81¢ $1 20d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 20d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 24d
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) BUY Aston Villa FC 80¢ $1 24d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 70¢ $1 35d
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1 35d
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $1 35d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 38d
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 40d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1 40d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 81¢ $1 40d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 95¢ $1 40d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 93¢ $2 40d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 79¢ $1 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 93¢ $2 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 76¢ $1 40d
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1 40d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) BUY Everton FC 79¢ $1 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 85¢ $1 42d
AFC Ajax vs. PSV: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1 42d
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +14.6% +3.7% 100% 50% +3.2%
≤30d 14 +16.5% +5.4% 93% 71% +4.9%
≤90d 72 +19.7% +8.3% 83% 78% -4.0%
all 240 +2.5% -7.3% 74% 60% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 60% -9.1%
10% -16.2% 46% -17.8%
15% -24.3% 26% -25.8%
20% -31.7% 13% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.44 · official $11.44 (match) · 458 history records