Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa58b…ef84 other 646 markets active 0h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$221 (-0%) realized +$605 · open −$826
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate65%325W / 173L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$5,903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$599
14 days+$725
30 days+$501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$22
other 9% −$633
sports 9% +$142
world 7% +$512
politics 4% −$26
tech 3% +$194
finance 3% −$102
economics 1% −$94
culture 1% −$202
weather 0% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +40.6% +27.2% 89% 82% +28.3%
≤30d 106 +17.8% +6.6% 72% 66% -0.0%
≤90d 219 +9.9% -0.5% 65% 62% -0.0%
all 498 -0.5% -10.0% 65% 38% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 38% -8.9%
10% -18.6% 29% -17.6%
15% -26.4% 19% -25.6%
20% -33.6% 15% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$25 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$5,903
Realized+$605
Unrealized−$826
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses325 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions148
Markets (closed)498 / 646
History coverage404d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 148 History 498 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 81¢ 98¢ $242 $295 +$53 (+22%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 78¢ 88¢ $156 $175 +$19 (+12%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 86¢ $140 $173 +$33 (+24%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 76¢ $132 $153 +$21 (+16%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 77¢ 76¢ $154 $152 −$2 (-1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 88¢ 75¢ $176 $150 −$26 (-15%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 70¢ $156 $141 −$15 (-10%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $140 $137 −$3 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 68¢ $130 $135 +$5 (+4%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 51¢ 64¢ $102 $127 +$25 (+25%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 73¢ 62¢ $146 $125 −$21 (-14%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $122 $121 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $108 $113 +$5 (+5%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 70¢ 56¢ $140 $113 −$27 (-19%)
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle? No 69¢ 100¢ $69 $100 +$31 (+44%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $85 $99 +$14 (+17%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 83¢ 92¢ $83 $92 +$9 (+11%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $71 $84 +$14 (+19%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 66¢ 42¢ $132 $83 −$49 (-37%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $79 $76 −$2 (-3%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 77¢ 74¢ $77 $74 −$2 (-3%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 18 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $86 +$114 +133%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $36 +$4 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 +$14 +54%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 16 $52 +$14 +27%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 16 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Jun 16 $174 +$9 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $80 +$110 +138%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 16 $182 +$16 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $62 +$136 +220%
Will G2 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $49 +$51 +104%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $23 +$17 +70%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $12 +$8 +72%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +54%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +52%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 14 $32 +$8 +25%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 14 $23 +$17 +75%
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Jun 14 $36 +$4 +12%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 14 $34 +$16 +47%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 14 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 14 $32 +$18 +54%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 14 $43 +$57 +133%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $71 +$29 +41%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $159 +$41 +26%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 11 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May? Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in May? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $15 +$5 +33%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $19 +$8 +43%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 07 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $32 +$17 +54%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 05 $86 +$109 +127%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $268 +$56 +21%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 05 $168 +$29 +17%
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 05 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 05 $43 +$7 +16%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Five Below (FIVE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $3 $0 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 03 $60 −$36 -60%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 02 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $64 +$49 +77%
Will Encore Medical’s market cap be less than $45M at market close on Jun 02 $18 +$12 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 90¢ $45 10m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 26¢ $13 19m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 57¢ $57 1h
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 66¢ $13 1h
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 5h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 18¢ $36 2d
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 2d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 2d
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $10B in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $71 2d
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $10B in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? BUY No 83¢ $34 2d
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $10B in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? BUY No 83¢ $7 2d
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $175 2d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? SELL Yes 92¢ $183 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $190 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $198 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 78¢ $78 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $76 2d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,903.14 · official $5,904.39 (match) · 1984 history records