Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A5 0xa58c…56e3 sports 1113 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$104 (-0%) realized −$127 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate73%805W / 296L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,026now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$266
7 days−$575
14 days−$305
30 days−$386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$600
other 30% +$305
crypto 9% −$246
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -14.1% -22.2% 64% 42% -21.3%
≤30d 541 -1.5% -10.9% 70% 50% -12.3%
≤90d 1101 +1.9% -7.8% 73% 53% -8.5%
all 1101 +1.9% -7.8% 73% 53% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 53% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 36% -17.3%
15% -24.7% 23% -25.3%
20% -32.1% 15% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$1,026
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses805 / 296
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1101 / 1113
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 1101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $208 $219 +$11 (+5%)
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 95¢ $66 $104 +$38 (+57%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 74¢ 74¢ $89 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 94¢ 97¢ $57 $58 +$2 (+3%)
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $60 $45 −$15 (-25%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 73¢ 74¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $36 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 46¢ $22 $28 +$5 (+24%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 75¢ 86¢ $22 $26 +$3 (+15%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 57¢ 61¢ $23 $24 +$2 (+7%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 44¢ 55¢ $16 $19 +$4 (+23%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 88¢ 91¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 95¢ 87¢ $19 $17 −$1 (-8%)
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-19%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 23¢ 32¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+38%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 257 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast hit 478 million subscribers by April 30? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 119.5 billion views by April 30? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-26? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-11? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 119 billion views by April 30? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $7 +$3 +39%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $24 +$10 +40%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 +$18 +144%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $27 +$3 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +9%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $16 +$14 +89%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +47%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$4 +25%
Who will finish higher: Albon or Jr.? Jun 17 $22 +$1 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 +$3 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $34 +$6 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8 +$2 +28%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $57 +$13 +24%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $34 +$6 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $27 +$3 +11%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $46 +$4 +10%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $8 +$2 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $53 +$2 +3%
StarCraft II: ByuN vs trigger (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage Jun 16 $67 +$4 +5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $52 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Rogue vs ByuN - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $33 $0 +1%
StarCraft II: Rogue vs ByuN - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $46 +$1 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $52 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Rogue vs Gerald (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 32m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY TDK 72¢ $7 9h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs BUY HOTU 64¢ $6 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $13 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $14 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $9 30h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 53¢ $16 30h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 30h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 70¢ $7 31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 31h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 65¢ $20 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $18 43h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $16 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $4 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $3 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $17 45h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 88¢ $9 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $8 46h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 85¢ $17 46h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 85¢ $8 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 46h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 86¢ $26 47h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 88¢ $9 47h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 92¢ $9 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,025.53 · official $1,025.53 (match) · 3500 history records