Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa58e…2e0f other 25 markets active 3d ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$31 (+25%) realized +$35 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$3
sports 23% +$27
politics 11% $0
world 8% +$5
crypto 7% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.6% -18.2% 38% 38% -3.3%
≤30d 12 -3.1% -12.3% 42% 42% +24.3%
≤90d 21 +3.3% -6.5% 57% 48% +18.5%
all 21 +3.3% -6.5% 57% 48% +18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 48% +18.5%
10% -15.5% 48% +7.1%
15% -23.7% 43% -3.2%
20% -31.1% 33% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)21 / 25
History coverage68d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 62¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$7 +56%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 06 $14 +$10 +70%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 06 $10 +$17 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $14 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +116%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 07 $1 $0 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 6d
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 9d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 9d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 9d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 9d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 16d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 16d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 58¢ $14 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 51d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 59d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 68d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL Yes 62¢ $5 69d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY Yes 68¢ $6 69d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL No 35¢ $9 69d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY No 31¢ $8 69d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 70d
Predators vs. Kings BUY Predators 24¢ $1 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.36 · official $9.36 (match) · 43 history records