Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa58e…daee crypto 171 markets active 1d ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,892 (-34%) realized −$1,878 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%95W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$59
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$436
sports 40% −$1,557
finance 6% +$13
world 6% +$41
other 6% +$6
politics 0% −$7
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -9.6% -18.2% 60% 39% -6.1%
≤30d 88 -8.5% -17.2% 60% 40% -5.9%
≤90d 141 -7.2% -16.0% 57% 43% -41.3%
all 169 -9.4% -18.0% 56% 42% -41.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 42% -41.5%
10% -25.9% 33% -47.1%
15% -33.0% 23% -52.2%
20% -39.6% 20% -56.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$33 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,878
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses95 / 74
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)169 / 171
History coverage112d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$14 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $21 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $17 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $13 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $12 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $20 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $17 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.13 · official $2.13 (match) · 374 history records