Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:04:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa58f…842f crypto 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%194W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 37 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 80 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 195 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×64.45 per $1 lost it wins $64.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses194 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)195 / 196
History coverage232d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 27? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? Jun 26 $246 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $245 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $245 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $245 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 22? Jun 22 $244 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $244 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 20? Jun 20 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 19? Jun 19 $244 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $244 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 17? Jun 17 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 12? Jun 12 $243 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $242 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $242 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 7? Jun 07 $241 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on June 6? Jun 06 $241 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 5? Jun 05 $241 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $241 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on June 2? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on June 2? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 2? Jun 02 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on June 1? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on June 1? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 1? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 1? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 1? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on May 31? Jun 01 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on May 30? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on May 30? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on May 26? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 28? May 28 $223 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 27? May 27 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on May 26? May 26 $222 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 25? May 25 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 25? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 23? May 23 $238 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on May 22? May 22 $238 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on May 21? May 21 $238 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on May 20? May 20 $238 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on May 19? May 19 $238 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on May 18? May 18 $237 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 16? May 16 $237 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 14? May 14 $237 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on May 12? May 12 $237 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $246 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $245 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $245 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $245 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $244 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $60 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $84 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $244 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $244 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $243 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $243 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $64 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $179 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $243 13d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $243 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $242 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $242 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $136 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $106 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $96 19d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $146 19d
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $30 20d
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $211 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $241 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $241 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $116 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $28 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 422 history records