Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa590…8eb8 politics 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 394d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate10%8W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$5
politics 28% −$4
sports 12% −$3
culture 9% −$1
economics 6% −$1
crypto 4% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 77 -10.2% -18.8% 10% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 1% -9.8%
10% -26.5% 1% -18.4%
15% -33.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -40.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

394d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses8 / 69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage394d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $54 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $162 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $1 $0 +22%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $53 $0 +1%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 23 $55 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $53 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16? Jan 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 16 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $167 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 05 $105 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 29 $2 $0 -14%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Dec 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 18? Dec 19 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -50%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 08 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 20 $1 $0 -37%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 18 $2 $0 -8%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 18 $3 $0 -10%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 13 $56 $0 +0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 03 $317 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 02 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 28 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 21 $120 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 19 $177 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 18 $1 $0 -50%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $3 $0 -12%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $60 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $53 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 39h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 11d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $54 107d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $54 116d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $54 121d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $54 126d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 131d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 137d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 137d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 137d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 137d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 138d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 138d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 140d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 140d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $53 142d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 143d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 145d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $55 145d
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $55 147d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY No 100¢ $53 149d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 150d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 151d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16? BUY No 100¢ $54 152d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 152d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $54 153d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $54 154d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.97 · official $52.97 (match) · 324 history records