Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa593…6d6e other 35 markets active 1d ago coverage 314d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$6
other 27% $0
tech 13% $0
politics 11% $0
economics 8% $0
sports 5% −$25
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.2% -13.4% 17% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 8 -3.3% -12.6% 12% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 8 -3.3% -12.6% 12% 0% -11.2%
all 35 -3.5% -12.7% 40% 0% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -12.5%
10% -21.0% 0% -20.9%
15% -28.6% 0% -28.5%
20% -35.6% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

314d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage314d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $79 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $79 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $40 −$4 -10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $22 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 16 $33 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 420–434 times August 1–August 8? Aug 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2025 WTA Montreal tournament? Aug 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $7 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 07 $69 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 06 $75 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 31h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 31h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 40h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 42h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $38 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $36 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 49¢ $40 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $40 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $9 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $44 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records