Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa596…15e9 sports 1373 markets active 4h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,049 (-3%) realized −$965 · open −$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%693W / 646L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$381est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,029now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$444
14 days+$604
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$375
other 13% −$857
weather 6% −$57
politics 3% −$19
world 2% −$234
economics 1% −$200
crypto 1% +$181
tech 0% −$47
finance 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -7.4% -16.2% 39% 37% +0.2%
≤30d 141 -6.1% -15.0% 43% 41% -10.3%
≤90d 1339 -5.0% -14.0% 52% 49% -13.7%
all 1339 -5.0% -14.0% 52% 49% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 49% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 45% -22.0%
15% -29.8% 38% -29.5%
20% -36.6% 31% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$1,029
Realized−$965
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses693 / 646
Est. fees paid−$381
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1339 / 1373
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 1339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $174 $184 +$10 (+6%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 14¢ 69¢ $29 $138 +$109 (+380%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $104 $122 +$18 (+17%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 3¢ 9¢ $26 $93 +$68 (+264%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $80 $75 −$5 (-6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $70 $65 −$5 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $30 $55 +$25 (+83%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $80 $45 −$35 (-44%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+8%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 13¢ 5¢ $39 $15 −$24 (-61%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 6¢ $48 $13 −$35 (-73%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $123 $11 −$112 (-91%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $16 $8 −$7 (-47%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $32 $5 −$27 (-83%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $26 $4 −$22 (-87%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $11 $2 −$10 (-86%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $125 +$79 +63%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France Jun 17 $25 +$29 +114%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$26 +103%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $133 −$133 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $42 +$58 +140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $71 −$1 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $68 −$2 -4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$2 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $430 +$570 +133%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $54 +$46 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $222 −$170 -77%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $85 +$40 +47%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $70 +$30 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $34 +$66 +197%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $47 +$53 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $72 −$72 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $85 +$40 +47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$70 +238%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $126 +$53 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $136 +$64 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $149 −$94 -63%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $79 +$120 +152%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $59 −$59 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $136 +$264 +194%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $320 −$3 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $60 +$120 +200%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 11 $211 −$8 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $363 −$16 -4%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 0¢ $10 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $44 4h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 8h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 9h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,029.36 · official $1,079.46 · 3500 history records