Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa598…6b57 sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$84 (-10%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 64% +$3
other 14% −$16
crypto 11% −$94
sports 11% +$25
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 6 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 31 +4.7% -5.2% 65% 32% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 32% -19.4%
10% -14.3% 26% -27.1%
15% -22.6% 26% -34.1%
20% -30.2% 26% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$19 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage525d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 05 $30 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 16 $104 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Aug 31 $110 $0 +0%
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Aug 31 $6 +$4 +70%
Phillies vs. Yankees Aug 31 $5 +$5 +117%
Dodgers vs. Red Sox Aug 31 $5 +$5 +100%
Rockies vs. Orioles Aug 31 $7 +$3 +52%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Jul 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Mar 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? Mar 10 $78 −$78 -100%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 24 $47 +$53 +113%
Rams vs. Eagles Feb 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24? Feb 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Kings vs. Kraken Feb 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Wild vs. Predators Feb 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24? Feb 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Oilers vs. Canucks Feb 03 $6 +$9 +156%
Blues vs. Utah Feb 03 $8 +$7 +96%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 03 $12 +$3 +22%
Wizards vs. Warriors Feb 03 $13 +$2 +14%
Commanders vs. Lions Feb 03 $3 +$12 +400%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 03 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $5 42d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 42d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $50 42d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $73 84d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $13 132d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 97¢ $26 132d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $30 153d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $55 153d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $104 196d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $20 244d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 10¢ $2 267d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes $43 301d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL Yes $67 301d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $110 301d
Phillies vs. Yankees BUY Yankees 46¢ $5 335d
Dodgers vs. Red Sox BUY Red Sox 50¢ $5 335d
Rockies vs. Orioles BUY Orioles 66¢ $7 335d
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates BUY Pirates 59¢ $6 335d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $10 475d
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? BUY Yes 78¢ $78 489d
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 489d
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 53¢ $21 510d
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 47¢ $24 510d
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 53¢ $21 510d
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 47¢ $24 510d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $19 525d
Wild vs. Predators BUY Wild 54¢ $3 525d
Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24? BUY No 41¢ $2 525d
Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24? BUY No 41¢ $6 525d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.69 · official $69.69 (match) · 69 history records