trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 100% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 100% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 100% | 0% | -8.7% |
| all | 31 | +4.7% | -5.2% | 65% | 32% | -19.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.2% | 32% | -19.4% |
| 10% | -14.3% | 26% | -27.1% |
| 15% | -22.6% | 26% | -34.1% |
| 20% | -30.2% | 26% | -40.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $70 | $70 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet | Jun 28 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me | Jun 28 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me | Jun 28 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m | May 17 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m | May 17 | $99 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | Apr 05 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Feb 16 | $104 | +$1 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Dec 13 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Oct 04 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | Aug 31 | $110 | $0 | +0% |
| Diamondbacks vs. Pirates | Aug 31 | $6 | +$4 | +70% |
| Phillies vs. Yankees | Aug 31 | $5 | +$5 | +117% |
| Dodgers vs. Red Sox | Aug 31 | $5 | +$5 | +100% |
| Rockies vs. Orioles | Aug 31 | $7 | +$3 | +52% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? | Jul 27 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kanye launch a coin in February? | Mar 10 | $26 | −$26 | -100% |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March? | Mar 10 | $78 | −$78 | -100% |
| Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? | Feb 24 | $43 | −$43 | -100% |
| Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | Feb 24 | $47 | +$53 | +113% |
| Rams vs. Eagles | Feb 03 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24? | Feb 03 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Kraken | Feb 03 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves | Feb 03 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Wild vs. Predators | Feb 03 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24? | Feb 03 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Oilers vs. Canucks | Feb 03 | $6 | +$9 | +156% |
| Blues vs. Utah | Feb 03 | $8 | +$7 | +96% |
| Rockets vs. Trail Blazers | Feb 03 | $12 | +$3 | +22% |
| Wizards vs. Warriors | Feb 03 | $13 | +$2 | +14% |
| Commanders vs. Lions | Feb 03 | $3 | +$12 | +400% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? | Feb 03 | $19 | $0 | +0% |