Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa599…affe
weather · 69 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$85 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$118
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses12 / 46
Open positions11
Markets (closed)58 / 69
History coverage83d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 11 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 58¢ 64¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Yes 44¢ 36¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-73%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 10? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 9? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$7 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$8 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$7 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$20 +473%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 9? Jun 10 $3 +$5 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$41 +972%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 9 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +13%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 12 $100 +$21 +21%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in March 2026? Apr 08 $45 −$33 -74%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in March Apr 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March Apr 05 $15 +$2 +12%
Crude Oil all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 30? Apr 01 $16 −$7 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 56% −$99
other 20% −$7
world 20% +$10
finance 4% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 30h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 34h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 43h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 45h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -27.1% -34.1% 19% 19% -27.7%
≤30d 43 -27.1% -34.1% 19% 19% -27.7%
≤90d 58 -32.3% -38.7% 21% 21% -24.2%
all 58 -32.3% -38.7% 21% 21% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 21% -24.2%
10% -44.6% 14% -31.5%
15% -49.9% 14% -38.1%
20% -54.8% 14% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.44 · official $118.44 (match) · 161 history records