Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa599…5230 sports 246 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,463 (-12%) realized −$980 · open −$483
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate32%71W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day137.4pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$928
7 days−$1,910
14 days−$1,811
30 days−$1,811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$1,746
other 17% −$516
world 1% −$40
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -21.7% -29.2% 31% 18% -26.7%
≤30d 222 -19.5% -27.2% 32% 20% -25.5%
≤90d 222 -19.5% -27.2% 32% 20% -25.5%
all 222 -19.5% -27.2% 32% 20% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover137.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.2% 20% -25.5%
10% ← realistic here -34.1% 16% -32.7%
15% -40.5% 14% -39.2%
20% -46.3% 9% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,292
Realized−$980
Unrealized−$483
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses71 / 151
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions24
Markets (closed)222 / 246
History coverage11d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day137.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 46¢ 69¢ $200 $299 +$99 (+49%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 Under 94¢ 97¢ $200 $207 +$7 (+4%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 39¢ 40¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Scotland 51¢ 16¢ $400 $128 −$272 (-68%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 38¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Over 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 98¢ 100¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Brazil to win the second half? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 86¢ 70¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $33 $29 −$4 (-12%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Under 46¢ 56¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 6¢ $100 $14 −$86 (-86%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will T1 win MSI 2026? No 74¢ 68¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-17%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $100 $4 −$96 (-96%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 6¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Scotland leading at halftime? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco to win the second half? Jun 24 $51 −$13 -26%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $152 −$13 -9%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $51 −$3 -5%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $203 +$2 +1%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $305 −$138 -45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$3 +3%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $51 −$3 -5%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $52 −$7 -14%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $52 −$10 -18%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $20 +$1 +3%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $103 +$40 +39%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $153 −$100 -65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $305 −$200 -66%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $93 +$115 +124%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $202 −$4 -2%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $202 −$5 -2%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $103 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $102 +$45 +44%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $5 +$6 +126%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $5 +$5 +91%
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo Jun 23 $62 −$14 -23%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $5 +$9 +178%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $5 +$2 +44%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 +$2 +42%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $15 −$3 -18%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 23 $10 −$4 -40%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $5 +$2 +44%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $10 −$2 -16%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $46 −$27 -58%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 $0 +5%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 23 $46 −$20 -44%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $26 −$13 -51%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $67 −$12 -18%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $15 +$2 +15%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $56 −$26 -46%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $30 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $51 2m
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $51 2m
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2m
Morocco to win the second half? SELL Yes 59¢ $38 5m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 90¢ $48 7m
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 71¢ $40 7m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 82¢ $48 8m
Morocco to win the second half? BUY Yes 77¢ $51 9m
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $51 9m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 93¢ $51 9m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 84¢ $51 9m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $51 36m
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $52 38m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $51 38m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $51 44m
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 75¢ $50 44m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 33¢ $167 45m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 98¢ $51 48m
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $51 48m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 91¢ $46 58m
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $46 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $51 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 93¢ $52 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $108 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 89¢ $59 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 98¢ $103 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 47¢ $56 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 41¢ $51 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,291.70 · official $1,291.75 (match) · 1755 history records