Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A5 0xa59d…f9a2 weather 758 markets active 4h ago coverage 130d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 130d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$215 (+0%) realized +$213 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate90%664W / 75L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$138
other 0% +$3
sports 0% +$3
world 0% +$5
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$3
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 22 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 332 +2.1% -7.7% 98% 2% -9.5%
all 739 +2.2% -7.5% 90% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 6% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 5% -18.0%
15% -24.4% 4% -25.9%
20% -31.8% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$18 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$634
Realized+$213
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses664 / 75
Open positions19
Markets (closed)739 / 758
History coverage130d ⚠
Avg bet$78
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 739 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $277 $277 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? No 97¢ 95¢ $194 $191 −$3 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 74¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+581%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 20? No 97¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+66%)
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Alcaraz 70¢ 54¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 31¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 16¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 25¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 1? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 1? Jun 02 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 30? May 30 $287 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on May 30? May 30 $158 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 30? May 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on May 30? May 30 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on May 29? May 29 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 29 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 29? May 29 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $162 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 28? May 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 28? May 28 $248 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $148 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 26? May 26 $474 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 26? May 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 23? May 23 $121 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on May 23? May 23 $144 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on May 23? May 23 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on May 23? May 22 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 18? May 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on May 16? May 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 16? May 16 $174 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 16? May 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 16? May 16 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma May 16 $78 $0 +1%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $9 +$10 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on May 6? May 06 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 5? May 05 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 5? May 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 4? May 04 $154 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 3? May 03 $262 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 3? May 03 $270 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 2? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 2? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 2? May 02 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 2? May 02 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on May 2? May 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 2? May 02 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 2? May 02 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 2? May 02 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on May 2? May 02 $141 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on May 2? May 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 1? May 01 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C on May 1? May 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on May 1? May 01 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 1? Apr 30 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on May 1? Apr 30 $99 −$9 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $91 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $71 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $194 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $100 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $90 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $150 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $150 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $148 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $49 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $100 40h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $70 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $1 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $2 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $5 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $5 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $5 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $5 18d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $148 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $5 19d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $2 19d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 30? SELL No 100¢ $91 19d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 30? SELL No 100¢ $50 19d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 30? SELL No 100¢ $38 19d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 19d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 30? SELL No 100¢ $7 19d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 30? SELL No 100¢ $5 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $633.72 · official $633.82 (match) · 3500 history records