Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa59e…c539 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$38 (+4%) realized +$26 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$192
other 4% +$29
world 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -16.0% -24.0% 38% 38% +15.8%
≤30d 21 -16.0% -24.0% 38% 38% +15.8%
≤90d 21 -16.0% -24.0% 38% 38% +15.8%
all 21 -16.0% -24.0% 38% 38% +15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 38% +15.8%
10% -31.2% 29% +4.7%
15% -37.9% 29% -5.4%
20% -44.0% 29% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$3 · ×10.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.58 per $1 lost it wins $6.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 48¢ 50¢ $307 $319 +$12 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $269 +$52 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $238 +$30 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $147 +$92 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$3 +91%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$6 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -96%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $13 +$49 +378%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$6 +80%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $216 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $322 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $269 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $269 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $238 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $238 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $147 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 21h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 25h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 25h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.89 · official $318.89 (match) · 36 history records