Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A5 0xa59f…f309 world 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate61%11W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$3
other 22% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -1.3% -10.7% 30% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 10 -1.3% -10.7% 30% 0% -10.2%
all 18 +0.1% -9.4% 61% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses11 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage465d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $56 +$2 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $79 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $62 +$3 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $38 −$8 -21%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $11 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $5 $0 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $8 $0 +3%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 20 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $13 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $21 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $34 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $32 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $2 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $33 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $33 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $33 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $30 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 40¢ $23 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $22 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $28 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $38 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 41¢ $2 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $2 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records