Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:30:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa5a0…2220 other 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%28W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$34
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$18
other 27% −$31
sports 12% −$9
crypto 10% −$5
world 6% −$1
economics 4% −$3
culture 4% −$6
tech 3% −$6
finance 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 74 -0.7% -10.2% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 156 -0.6% -10.1% 15% 0% -9.9%
all 180 -0.6% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses28 / 152
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)180 / 181
History coverage108d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? No 97¢ 97¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 25 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 25 $184 −$1 -1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $63 +$1 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 24 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $107 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 23 $98 −$1 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 22 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Panama reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $188 −$1 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 21 $67 −$1 -1%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 21 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $81 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $75 $0 -0%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $86 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $80 −$2 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $54 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $141 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $42 −$2 -4%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $117 −$2 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $258 −$4 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $240 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $410 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $117 −$2 -2%
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $47 −$3 -6%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $52 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $68 48m
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $66 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $66 9h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $61 9h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $61 18h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $60 18h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $60 22h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $65 23h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $65 27h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 27h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $63 33h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $57 34h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $59 39h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $67 39h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $67 47h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $59 2d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $60 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 2d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 90¢ $63 2d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $64 3d
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 97¢ $67 3d
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 98¢ $67 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $66 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $66 3d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 96¢ $75 3d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $75 3d
Will Panama reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.95 · official $67.95 (match) · 748 history records