Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A5 0xa5a1…3f04 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$120 (+23%) realized +$135 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$200
14 days+$200
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$149
crypto 14% +$34
sports 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +75.3% +58.6% 60% 60% +100.1%
≤30d 7 +25.2% +13.3% 43% 43% +97.7%
≤90d 7 +25.2% +13.3% 43% 43% +97.7%
all 7 +25.2% +13.3% 43% 43% +97.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.3% 43% +97.7%
10% +2.5% 43% +78.8%
15% -7.4% 43% +61.5%
20% -16.5% 43% +45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +119% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +119% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$2 · ×35.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26.67 per $1 lost it wins $26.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$135
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage15d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 68¢ $200 $185 −$15 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $75 +$129 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$40 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $44 +$37 +83%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.14 · official $185.14 (match) · 19 history records