Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A5 0xa5a2…6f29 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$189 (+25%) realized +$190 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +212% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +171% what you keep after slip
Net edge+171%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$182
sports 47% +$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+182.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +212.0% +182.3% 33% 33% -10.1%
≤30d 3 +212.0% +182.3% 33% 33% -10.1%
≤90d 3 +212.0% +182.3% 33% 33% -10.1%
all 3 +212.0% +182.3% 33% 33% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +182.3% 33% -10.1%
10% +155.3% 33% -18.7%
15% +130.6% 33% -26.5%
20% +108.0% 33% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +212% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$443 vs −$224 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $292 −$182 -62%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $307 −$266 -86%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $56 +$443 +784%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $111 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $111 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $292 8h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $42 18h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $307 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 21h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.23 · official $109.23 (match) · 8 history records