Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A5 0xa5a8…bdb5 other 10 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$93 (+2%) realized +$356 · open −$263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$511per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$3,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$263
sports 19% +$339
world 6% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +18.8% +7.4% 100% 50% +14.9%
≤30d 2 +18.8% +7.4% 100% 50% +14.9%
≤90d 2 +18.8% +7.4% 100% 50% +14.9%
all 2 +18.8% +7.4% 100% 50% +14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 50% +14.9%
10% -2.8% 50% +3.9%
15% -12.2% 0% -6.2%
20% -20.8% 0% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$174 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$3,524
Realized+$356
Unrealized−$263
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$511
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 78¢ 79¢ $1,184 $1,195 +$12 (+1%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 100¢ $500 $531 +$31 (+6%)
Will Japan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $500 $509 +$9 (+2%)
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 86¢ 54¢ $800 $499 −$301 (-38%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $300 $317 +$17 (+6%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 80¢ $300 $264 −$36 (-12%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 77¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will Japan be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 91¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $300 +$10 +3%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $993 +$339 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,524.24 · official $3,524.24 (match) · 14 history records