Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

A5 0xa5aa…b519 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL −$1,577 (-54%) realized −$1,549 · open −$28

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$727per market

Trades / day3.2pace

Fees−$32est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+24.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+37.5%	+24.4%	67%	67%	-69.3%
≤30d	3	+37.5%	+24.4%	67%	67%	-69.3%
≤90d	3	+37.5%	+24.4%	67%	67%	-69.3%
all	3	+37.5%	+24.4%	67%	67%	-69.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+24.4%	67%	-69.3%
10%	+12.5%	67%	-72.3%
15%	+1.6%	67%	-74.9%
20%	-8.3%	33%	-77.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -66% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +37% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$157 vs −$2,000 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.16 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$292

Realized−$1,549

Unrealized−$28

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$32

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$727

Trades / day3.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$320	$292	−$28 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$2,031	−$2,000	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$505	+$241	+48%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	Jun 20	$45	+$73	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	17¢	$328	1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$2,031	6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$505	30h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5)	BUY Netherlands	37¢	$45	31h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.76 · official $291.76 (match) · 6 history records