Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa5ab…ff89 sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,546 (+5%) realized +$2,293 · open −$747
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%30W / 47L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$200est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,124
7 days+$1,685
14 days+$2,769
30 days+$2,194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$444
other 42% +$2,088
world 6% −$597
politics 2% −$209
crypto 2% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +2.6% -7.2% 45% 45% +7.1%
≤30d 47 -8.0% -16.7% 40% 40% +0.3%
≤90d 56 -22.6% -30.0% 34% 34% -4.7%
all 77 -17.0% -24.9% 39% 35% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 35% -3.4%
10% -32.1% 34% -12.7%
15% -38.6% 30% -21.1%
20% -44.6% 29% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$509) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$471 vs −$264 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$1,576
Realized+$2,293
Unrealized−$747
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$200
Open positions7
Markets (closed)77 / 84
History coverage227d
Avg bet$381
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $801 $1,025 +$224 (+28%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $266 +$16 (+6%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $75 −$175 (-70%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $350 $73 −$277 (-79%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $175 $57 −$117 (-67%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $422 $42 −$380 (-90%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $38 −$38 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $128 −$125 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $456 +$334 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $407 +$569 +140%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $609 −$600 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $82 −$79 -97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $406 −$400 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $458 +$672 +147%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $610 +$754 +124%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $762 +$920 +121%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $459 −$450 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $509 +$740 +145%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $510 +$1,101 +216%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $638 −$627 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $510 −$500 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $406 +$410 +101%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $358 −$350 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $560 −$550 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $306 −$300 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $659 +$567 +86%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $407 −$400 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $962 +$695 +72%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $456 −$450 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $458 −$450 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $484 −$475 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $608 −$600 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $610 +$734 +120%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $610 +$699 +114%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $306 +$683 +223%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $508 −$500 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $356 −$350 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $356 −$350 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $509 +$682 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $304 +$273 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $866 −$850 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $611 +$862 +141%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $185 −$180 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $93 −$90 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $154 −$150 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $559 +$596 +107%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $457 +$521 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $306 +$484 +158%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $77 −$75 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $458 −$450 -98%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Rafael Jodar Apr 17 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-21? Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Grigor Dimitrov 19¢ $128 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $456 17h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $609 20h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 21h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $30 21h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $51 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $407 30h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $406 30h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 44¢ $153 45h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $306 46h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $610 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $153 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $459 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $1,249 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $610 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $509 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $1,611 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $510 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $27 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $611 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $153 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $357 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $406 5d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $358 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $102 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $458 6d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $306 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $407 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $203 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $456 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,576.16 · official $1,576.16 (match) · 313 history records