Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A5 0xa5ae…7b97 world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$1
other 9% −$1
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.1% -10.6% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 6 -1.1% -10.6% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 6 -1.1% -10.6% 17% 0% -10.0%
all 18 -1.6% -11.0% 39% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage466d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $107 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $12 $0 +2%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $13 $0 -1%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $13 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 22? Mar 23 $13 $0 +2%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 17 $4 −$1 -25%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Mar 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $4 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $6 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $0 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 30h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $31 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $27 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $38 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $38 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $9 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $11 5d
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $12 354d
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 355d
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 99¢ $1 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.62 · official $38.46 (match) · 57 history records